Robotaxis on the Rise: Are Driverless Cars the Future of Public Transport?
Robotaxis, self-driving vehicles offering public transportation services, are gaining traction in major cities worldwide.
According to a new report by IDTechEx, Autonomous Vehicles Market 2025-2045: Robotaxis, Autonomous Cars, Sensors, robotaxi testing is underway in numerous countries, with China leading the way in commercial deployment.
The report analyzes the commercial viability of various companies and vehicles, while also addressing safety concerns and market challenges.
California serves as a prime example, with IDTechEx reporting 9 million miles driven by registered autonomous vehicles in 2023. Waymo stands out as a key player, contributing half of the total miles driven. Cruise, another major competitor, recently suspended operations despite logging 30% of the miles.
Safety remains a critical aspect. Miles per disengagement (MPD) measures how far an autonomous vehicle travels before requiring human intervention. While the average MPD has risen significantly, reaching hundreds of thousands of miles, collisions can still occur.
Comparing robotaxis to human drivers is complex. Determining an “acceptable” collision rate for autonomous vehicles is challenging. Using highly skilled human drivers as a benchmark might not be ideal due to factors like aggressive driving, which wouldn’t apply to robotaxis.
In the US, the average driver experiences a collision every 200,000 miles, with this number doubling in busy areas. IDTechEx reports that in 2023, excluding Cruise, the top three robotaxi companies achieved an average of 86,000 miles before disengagement. However, it is predicted that robotaxis could surpass human performance by 2025.
Waymo, the leading US player, launched a public robotaxi service in Phoenix in 2020. Since then, they’ve expanded operations to other cities, including Los Angeles, San Francisco, and plan to enter Atlanta and Austin in 2025. Waymo reports 150,000 paid trips per week across over 1 million miles of fully autonomous driving, highlighting the potential of robotaxis.
China is another major player, with commercial robotaxi deployments in six cities and testing ongoing in two more. The US has commercial deployments in three states, with plans for expansion in two more and testing in over 20 cities. Additionally, testing is underway in France, Germany, the UK, and Japan, with Germany anticipating commercial deployment in 2025 and Japan in 2026.
While widespread robotaxi adoption hasn’t been achieved yet, many companies are in various stages of development. Some are in early testing phases, while others operate commercially in single or multiple locations.
The IDTechEx report, available at www.IDTechEx.com/AutoVehicles, provides further insights into robotaxi deployment predictions and market statistics. For a comprehensive view of the autonomous vehicle market research offered by IDTechEx, visit www.IDTechEx.com/Research/Autonomy.
