Heat pump adoption to surge but challenges remain, say Juniper Research
The global number of homes using heat pumps is projected to reach 238 million by 2029, a 35% increase from 177 million in 2025, according to a new study from Juniper Research.
This growth, driven largely by government regulations like the UK’s Clean Heat Market Mechanism, still only represents 7% of all homes. Despite the projected increase, widespread adoption faces significant hurdles.
Juniper Research identifies high installation costs, a shortage of trained heat pump installers, and unsuitability for apartments as major obstacles. These challenges are expected to limit adoption primarily to early adopters, leaving 90% of homes without alternative heating systems by 2029.
The report emphasises the need for innovation to broaden heat pump adoption. It highlights R32 refrigerant as a key technology for improving operating efficiency and cost-effectiveness. Report author Thomas Wilson suggests that vendors should focus on promoting the cost savings associated with their units, such as those achieved through more efficient components like variable-speed compressors.
Addressing the challenge of apartment installations, the report recommends prioritizing monobloc systems. Failure to adapt to the specific needs of space-constrained apartments, it warns, could lead to stagnated growth and potential regulatory penalties for missed sales targets.
Juniper Research’s comprehensive study, “Global Heat Pump Market 2025-2029,” offers in-depth analysis and forecasts for the heat pump market, covering 61 countries and including a competitor leaderboard.
Download the whitepaper: https://www.juniperresearch.
